US Election, Global Economy and Future of Bitcoins & Crypto

The current state of US economy warrants a Elon Musk style revamp. The amount of debt the US has incurred, can only be repaid by incorporating DOGE (Department of government efficiency) headed by Elon. So it is no wonder that Elon and the person he supported, Donald Trump won the elections.

The impact of US elections on geopolitics and the global economy will be huge. Expect some of the below macro trends to happen. Not all of the below will happen because of Trump but the trigger will be Trump’s MAGA policy and its repercussions.

Geopolitics 

• Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine

• Ceasefire between Israel and Palestine

• Rise of Nationalism especially in EU

• Rise of Developing Nations - For example a Nigeria or a South Africa or a Brazil is doing more for the world than say a UK or Spain. EU has to do a lot of introspection and question if they deserve the privilege they deserve

• Bigger US and India economic relationship than ever - For the simple reason that China is a close second in economy to US, I see US diversifying its economy by giving more to India by taing away something from China

• Rise of China & India in Africa - The role played by Asia for the west will be played by Africa for Asia in the coming decade. China will have an upper hand over India because they have been more strategic about estabilishing ground work in Africa in the last 20-30 years than India.  

Global Economy

• Rise of Manufacturing in US - not the traditional manufacturing but new age manufacturing such as EV, Self Driving Cars, Robots, Semiconductors for AI, Renewable and Non Renewable Energy especially Fusion. PS: While Trump is bullish on Fossil based energy, I hope common sense prevails

• Rise of Hardware technology industries across the world. For example - Smart fans by Atomberg in India; So why not Smart Refridgerators, Smart Mixers, Grinders etc

• Consolidation in Software - We have too many softwares in the world and that is super inefficient. For example: Off the top of my head I can name 10 CRMs that are billion dollar business. Best will survive the next decade, remaining will be replaced by  AI based alternatives

• Rise of Defense Tech - Lets not kid ourselves, we will probably see a war at some point in the next 20 years. Who wins this war will be determined by who has better technology. This space has not seen a step change since world war 2 and now is a good time for the step change in technology to happen

Future of Bitcoins & Crypto?

That finance and banking needs a revamp is clear to everyone; Whether it will through public blockchains or private chains is an open question. Every country will decide to use what gives them strategic advantage. My sense is that US and western nations will move to using crypto. India like China will probably move to a CBDC system. This is simply based on my observation of how capitalist’s in each of these countries have been making their bets on startups.

Trump’s administration will definitely build on top of bitcoin, ethereum and solana ETFs and give the Industry more legitimacy. But how fast this industry wide transition will happen is still a very open question. Next 2-3 months are very important in this regard.